Прогнозування впливу технологічних чинників на розподіл інтенсивності аварій

Abstract

Existing methods of failure intensity local value calculation are difficult enough and limited in use, which interfers the representation of such researches in the generalized, convenient form. The mechanism of risk assessment can be realized on the basis of technical approach which forecasts tubing breakdown procedure aimed at dividing it on characteristic sites with determination of expected failure intensity on each of them, taking into consideration final set of factors which influence its value. 12 groups of influence factors (IF) have been deducted from the analysis of the statistical data with differentiation of relative contributions of these groups into the general failure file, calculated by means of weight factors. Splitting of tubing into sites is carried out successively and independently on each IF. The whole point of the offered technique is that the value of integrated influence factor is defined on each site of line. This factor shows how many times local intensity of failures, calculated as product of two influence factors: local (k loc) and diametrical (kD), differs from average. Failure intensity local value final formula evaluation for each site of the line gives an opportunity to get specific failure frequency distribution on tubing. Received analytical dependence may serve as theoretical basis for further development and improvement of failure intensity local value calculation methods during exploitation of oil and gas equipment.